Ag Viability Study

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Ag Viability Study

CommunityViz SiteBuilder 3D view looking southwest from upper Elk River Valley towards Elk Mountain (Sleeping Giant).

Ag Viability Study,
Routt County Scenario for CommunityViz

January 2001
Agricultural Viability
by CJ Mucklow and Chuck Donley
for The Orton Family Foundation
with Doug Carlson and Gilbert Anderson

Irrigated hay meadows in light green overlayed on potential cattle production from hay meadows for each ranch. [Click here to view full size picture]

The Agricultural Viability Scenario illustrates measurable issues cause the loss of ranching in the Upper Elk River Valley of Routt County, Colorado. The scenario quantifies factors, which may cause the decline and ultimately the demise of cattle ranching. The project includes a SiteBuilder 3D fly-thru of the region to help users visualize the region. The project demonstrates the flexibility of CommunityViz in applications not related to development and community analysis. The scenario does not address all issues related to agricultural viability; it shows the potential of the software in hopes that others will expand on the application or apply the model to other regions.

If trends of the past continue, cattle production in the Upper Elk River Valley could lose the critical mass required to maintain a viable agriculture economy.

Successful ranching depends upon commercial suppliers and services, a supportive political environment, and a labor pool. The loss of each ranch reduces the demand/support for these resources and in time these resources disappear, threatening the entire agricultural economy. (For example, ranchers must now travel to Craig or Denver to purchase many products.)

This project’s key indicator of critical mass is the cattle production needed to support a veterinarian. The project assumes that 3,000 cows are required to support a full-time bovine veterinarian (variable available).

Number of houses within 5,000 feet of each ranch, (houses shown as points). [Click here to view full size picture]

Cattle Production

Cattle production depends upon available land, especially irrigated meadows for production of hay needed to feed cattle in the winter. The scenario measures the available irrigated hay meadows to determine the number of cattle each ranch can support (variable available).

The "Hassle Factor"
Ranchers must address numerous issues not directly associated with agricultural production. Examples of these issues include maintaining fences, dogs harassing livestock and assuring rightful water flows through irrigation ditches. These issues grow in significance, as ranches are subdivided, creating more parcels occupied by people not familiar with the responsibilities associated with rural living. A series of automated fields calculate the level of impact each issue has on a ranch. Each issue can be adjusted with a variable, and they are listed below.

Number of houses within 5000 feet of each ranch (houses shown as points).

Houses within a mile: indicates potential dogs at large, traffic on nearby roads, and complaints about agricultural operations. Generated a point coverage illustrating the centerpoint of each parcel which contained a dwelling unit based on the Routt County Assessor information. Counts the number of homes with a variable distance from the parcel(s) associated with the ranch.

Parcels adjacent to ranch: indicates potential fence maintenance conflicts and other neighbor issues. Counted the number of parcels next to the ranch based on Assessor information.

Parcels crossed by an irrigation ditch: indicates challenges gaining property access to maintain ditch and risk of unauthorized use of water. Created coverage depicting the location of multi-owner irrigation ditches and counted the number of parcels each ditch crosses. Summed the number of parcels crossed by irrigation ditches serving the ranch.

These issues are summarized for each ranch creating a “hassle” factor. Each item counted is added together to create a total score. Presumably at some point all the hassles involved in agricultural production outweigh the benefits and the owner decides to cease operation. A variable creates this threshold to identify ranches at risk of closing. Note that the actual decision to cease operations depends on many more factors than those listed and this analysis only offers a hypothetical example (for other reasons see Rowe and Bartlett).

Ranches at greater risk (darker) because of cumulative “hassle” factors associated with operating the ranch. [Click here to view full size picture]

At Risk Ranches
It is hoped that this ag viability scenario will promote others to expand this study and apply it to other locations. Perhaps the most significant issue involves the subdivision of an existing ranch, which diminishes cattle production and increases the “hassles” from more homes, and adjacent owners. Other indicators that others could incorporate into this model include:

ratio of actual land value to agriculture productivity value,

federal grazing rules,

roads/traffic issues for driving cattle to pasture, accessing fields with equipment and intro

local zoning regulations

tax regulations, especially inheritance taxes

number of non-local hunters in region who may trespass

wildlife issues such as endangered species and wintering elk feeding on hay

noxious weed infestations

age of rancher and likely heirs to continue operations

conservation easements